Last night, the Twitterverse was--erm, atwitter-- with a fair bit of buzz. According to Sportsnet's Nick Kypreos, the word among NHL executives is that the Ducks' recent tailspin(I'm done with puns now, I swear. At least for the rest of the paragraph) has caused them to weigh their options for pulling out of it, namely dangling Bobby Ryan as tradebait. Like everyone else, this caused an immediate surge in my heartrate. This season's incarnation of the Nashville Predators fits the characterization that we're all too familiar with-- our top defensive pairing and goaltender are stellar, and they have to be; on most nights, our forwards can only be counted on for 3, 2, or even one goal. The onus is on the rearguard to make it hold up. While this has been the modus operandi for the Preds, the secret to their quasi-success for the past 4 or so seasons, it leaves little margin for error. As we've seen recently, a single soft goal from Pekka might be enough to sink us on any given night. Given how much we ask and expect from him, and how consistent he is in delivering, that's not really fair. Nor is it reasonable to have to play our top pairing for 28-30 minutes a night. But again-- it all comes back to goal support. We don't have it, and it's been our undoing--especially in the playoffs.
With all of that in mind, and on the heels of encouraging words from ownership and management revolving around increased payroll spending--including a quote from Tom Cigarran that promised that not only would our impressive defensive core, the so-called "Big Three" be retained, that the goal was to get the offensive side of the game up to that level as well--we seem to be at a place of intriguing opportunity. While Ryan isn't Sidney Crosby or Steven Stamkos, he is a pure sniper. His lowest goal total over a full season--31, is just one shy of the franchise's shared record of 32. His career high of 35? That's pretty rarified air for a Nashville Predator. While some critics would be quick to point out that his surrounding cast in Anaheim isn't something we'd be able to provide, no Perry or Getzlaf for example, it's worth noting and even more impressive when you consider that Ryan put up these kinds of numbers from the second and even at times third line, and with only second power play unit time. For most of last season, he plied his trade with a washed up Saku Koivu and the much-maligned Jason Blake. There's little doubt that he could maintain those kinds of numbers and bring a shoot-first mentality to an all-American first line in Nashville with say, Craig Smith and Colin Wilson. And then there's of course the trickle-down effect of having a "star" player that keeps opposing defenses honest. Consider exhibit A-- last year's playoff tilt with the Vancouver Canucks. While our defense and goaltending as well as timely goals from unlikely sources kept the series close on paper, you only had to watch the games to know that the Predators were holding on for dear life. There was little in the way of real offense because the Canucks defense had very little to "shut down." There was no true threat to key in on. In a series like that, it's true that Ryan's numbers may suffer--but it then frees up secondary scoring(in our Lexicon, that's considered 'primary scoring') to get the job done. It allows players that should be complimentary--Mike Fisher, Sergei Kostitsyn, just to pick two names out of the hat-- to step up under lesser defensive scrutiny. Adding a sniper of Ryan's caliber makes the team on the whole that much more dangerous.
Now, the on-ice effect of trading for Bobby Ryan is obvious. What might not be as apparent is what such a trade does for the legitimacy of the franchise. The Predators have long been a bit of a darling around the league-- the little team that could. We've been easy to root for, easy to like because--on paper, we shouldn't be as successful as we are. But when it comes down to it, the reason that it's so hard to dislike us is because we've never been a real threat. The Predators are perennial playoff contender, but since 2007, it's been tough to realistically call them a Cup contender. A lot of that has to do with counting on guys like Mike Fisher and Martin Erat-- again, second or third liners on a great team--to be our primary scorers. It's not something that many around the league can take seriously. Adding a player of Ryan's caliber adds a marquee forward to the mix. It's a single addition that transforms the Nashville Predators in the eyes of NHL fans--including our own--into a true Cup threat. If you look at the buzz that trading for a guy that is, let's be honest, a very good third line center in Mike Fisher created, what sort of message does trading for a true "star" player send? It sends the message that you're not willing to be a team that relies on hard work and a little puck-luck alone to be a contender. It's a matter of taking success into your own hands.
Most of all, this is a chance for David Poile and the ownership group to put their money where their collective mouths are. With the Toronto Maple Leafs in town recently, the sting was still fresh to many of us, knowing how close we once came in a similar situation. The Phil Kessel sweepstakes became a two horse race, one that we ultimately lost out on due to an unwillingness to give Kessel an extra 750K a year, according to Boston Globe writer Kevin Paul Dupont. Poile has long preached that he's aware of the Predators' offensive deficiency, and that when the time comes, he has no problem dealing from the cupboard for the "right player." There couldn't be a player more right for our situation. Similarly, ownership has pledged to increase payroll--again--for the "right player." It's time to make a statement to the league--and more important, a fanbase that's been patient and starved for success for several years.
Ultimately, none of this is a groundbreaking revelation. If you read this blog, you're likely aware of the type of player Bobby Ryan is, and what acquiring him would do for the team. So...what does it cost? When legendary Preds blogger Jeremy Gover asked me to contribute to a coordinated blog effort to gauge that, we had already been tossing some ideas back and forth, and I think we've got a pretty fair offer that wouldn't sting too terribly much. Something important to consider is that the Ducks are currently at the 50 contract max--so whatever we dealt would have to keep that in mind. Picks and prospects become a premium, but obviously they're going to want a good, young, established player in any package as well. With all of that in mind:
To Anaheim
Patric Hornqvist
ONE OF Ryan Ellis OR Roman Josi
Teemu Laakso
ONE OF 1st rd pick OR Austin Watson
To Nashville
Bobby Ryan
Sheldon Brookbank
In this first proposal, we give Anaheim a young player that's already hit 30 goals once, but needs to work on consistency and being effective in places other than right in front of the net--at nearly 3 million dollars cheaper. They also get a high-end defensive prospect-- Ellis may interest them due to his connection to Cam Fowler, having played together with the Windsor Spitfires. They have their choice of a first round pick in this year's draft or, if they want another prospect that's a little bit further along, they can have 2010 first rounder Austin Watson. Teemu Laakso is a throw-in-- they can play him, they can waive him. He's essentially being traded for a slight upgrade on our part in Sheldon Brookbank.
Now, the second proposal isn't one that I discussed with Jeremy, but I think it's intriguing nonetheless:
to Anaheim:
Patric Hornqvist
Jonathan Blum
1st rd pick OR Austin Watson
to Nashville
Bobby Ryan
Francois Beauchemin OR Toni Lydman
In this deal, they get a more established, but still young defenseman in Blum--with the bonus that he grew up a Ducks fan in nearby Rancho Santa Margharita. In exchange, we upgrade our second pairing with a veteran presence in the short term--while keeping prospect defensemen that will eventually be able to take their place when they move on.
In my never-humble opinion, I think both of these deals work well for both teams. Obviously, there are unforeseen variables brought on by things like bidding wars--but even if we needed to add further picks or prospects, I think we've got the ammunition to make a deal happen. It's just a matter of "Patient Poile" swallowing the lump in his throat and making it happen this time.
I haven't purchased a white away sweater yet. I'd love to stick number 9 on the back of one for my Christmas request-- and I'm not referring to JR Lind's departed icon, he who must be CAPITALIZED.
-pomr
Showing posts with label NHL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NHL. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Preds\Hawks Game 1 thoughts
0-10. 15 goals for. 33 goals against.
These were the rather the foreboding statistics that greeted the Predators as they took the ice in front of a frenzied crowd of 22K+ at the United Center. The road had been cruel to the Predators in postseasons past, and these numbers likely resonated in the collective minds of the Preds as loudly as the steady-building roar accompanying the Star Spangled Banner. With a host so hostile, and history an unkind reminder to past defiency, the odds were not on the side of the Nashville Predators.
Maybe that's why gambling is such a successful pursuit for some.
Eventually, the odds always turn, and that's what happened for the Preds last night. No one will claim it was a perfectly executed game on the part of the Preds, but they consistently stuck to their gameplan, frustrating the Hawks offense at every turn. I actually kept a running count of the amount of times at even strength that the Hawks were able to get set up for any sort of meaningful attack. Five. Five times. Sure, there were inopportune turnovers. Pekka was forced to make highlight-reel saves on both Sharp and Toews, but with all things considered regarding the offensive weaponry at the disposal of the Blackhawks, I think the Predators were able to mitigate their chances effectively. A banner statistic for Chicago coming into the game was that they boasted the highest shot differential in the league - 34 for, 25 against, for a total of plus 9. The fact that the Predators matched them at 26 speaks to the way they were able to manage the game. Aside from a few dangerous chances and close calls, the Hawks never really sustained any pressure. Their modus operandi is fierce puck possession, something the Predators rarely allowed. It wasn't all pretty-- there was a stretch in the second period, shortly after the Hawks scored, that the Preds looked on their heels a bit. Dumont's lucky(let's face it, the bounce went our way on that one) first goal couldn't have come at a better time. The timing and nature of that goal did a good deal to deflate the confidence and spirit of the Hawks and their fans. It was nice to finally get a bounce in our favor, for once.
Niemi was thought to be the Blackhawks' weak spot, but the loss can't really be pinned on the Finnish rookie. Chicago coach Joel Quenneville basically said as much in his postgame comments, laying forth the vote of confidence. As mentioned, Dumont's first goal came off a strange bounce on "terrible ice," according to Steve Sullivan. The second goal should be blamed more on the lackadaisical turnover of Troy Brouwer.
There were a lot of positives to be taken away from last night, but I'd like to particularly recognize a few players. David Legwand told the Tennessean before the game that he was looking at the playoffs as a "clean slate." He acknowledge that the season didn't go the way he would have liked offensively, and he wanted to find another gear. He delivered, turning in one of his strongest games of the year. He was rewarded with 2 assists and a plus-3 rating, to lead all skaters. Similarly, former Blackhawks JP Dumont and Steve Sullivan came back to haunt their former team with great efforts. Both Sully and JP struggled with consistency this season, and by their own admission were a bit disappointing offensively, but attained a nice bit of redemption in game one.
While the excitement of game one is still fresh in everyone's mind, Barry Trotz's admonishment to keep a "short memory" is important. That may be one particular benefit gained from the volume of games played in March. There was never too much time to relish in a victory or dwell on a loss. Chicago plans on juggling some lines and changing their approach, and it's guaranteed that they'll come out with an intensity that we likely didn't see in game one. The important thing for the Preds is to remember what got them the win in game one-- stay the course, be patient, and play Predators hockey. If they do that, and continue to limit the time and space given to the Blackhawks, there is no reason that they can't head home for game 3 with a 2-0 series lead.
The nailbiting resumes tomorrow at 7:30 PM in the Windy City.
These were the rather the foreboding statistics that greeted the Predators as they took the ice in front of a frenzied crowd of 22K+ at the United Center. The road had been cruel to the Predators in postseasons past, and these numbers likely resonated in the collective minds of the Preds as loudly as the steady-building roar accompanying the Star Spangled Banner. With a host so hostile, and history an unkind reminder to past defiency, the odds were not on the side of the Nashville Predators.
Maybe that's why gambling is such a successful pursuit for some.
Eventually, the odds always turn, and that's what happened for the Preds last night. No one will claim it was a perfectly executed game on the part of the Preds, but they consistently stuck to their gameplan, frustrating the Hawks offense at every turn. I actually kept a running count of the amount of times at even strength that the Hawks were able to get set up for any sort of meaningful attack. Five. Five times. Sure, there were inopportune turnovers. Pekka was forced to make highlight-reel saves on both Sharp and Toews, but with all things considered regarding the offensive weaponry at the disposal of the Blackhawks, I think the Predators were able to mitigate their chances effectively. A banner statistic for Chicago coming into the game was that they boasted the highest shot differential in the league - 34 for, 25 against, for a total of plus 9. The fact that the Predators matched them at 26 speaks to the way they were able to manage the game. Aside from a few dangerous chances and close calls, the Hawks never really sustained any pressure. Their modus operandi is fierce puck possession, something the Predators rarely allowed. It wasn't all pretty-- there was a stretch in the second period, shortly after the Hawks scored, that the Preds looked on their heels a bit. Dumont's lucky(let's face it, the bounce went our way on that one) first goal couldn't have come at a better time. The timing and nature of that goal did a good deal to deflate the confidence and spirit of the Hawks and their fans. It was nice to finally get a bounce in our favor, for once.
Niemi was thought to be the Blackhawks' weak spot, but the loss can't really be pinned on the Finnish rookie. Chicago coach Joel Quenneville basically said as much in his postgame comments, laying forth the vote of confidence. As mentioned, Dumont's first goal came off a strange bounce on "terrible ice," according to Steve Sullivan. The second goal should be blamed more on the lackadaisical turnover of Troy Brouwer.
There were a lot of positives to be taken away from last night, but I'd like to particularly recognize a few players. David Legwand told the Tennessean before the game that he was looking at the playoffs as a "clean slate." He acknowledge that the season didn't go the way he would have liked offensively, and he wanted to find another gear. He delivered, turning in one of his strongest games of the year. He was rewarded with 2 assists and a plus-3 rating, to lead all skaters. Similarly, former Blackhawks JP Dumont and Steve Sullivan came back to haunt their former team with great efforts. Both Sully and JP struggled with consistency this season, and by their own admission were a bit disappointing offensively, but attained a nice bit of redemption in game one.
While the excitement of game one is still fresh in everyone's mind, Barry Trotz's admonishment to keep a "short memory" is important. That may be one particular benefit gained from the volume of games played in March. There was never too much time to relish in a victory or dwell on a loss. Chicago plans on juggling some lines and changing their approach, and it's guaranteed that they'll come out with an intensity that we likely didn't see in game one. The important thing for the Preds is to remember what got them the win in game one-- stay the course, be patient, and play Predators hockey. If they do that, and continue to limit the time and space given to the Blackhawks, there is no reason that they can't head home for game 3 with a 2-0 series lead.
The nailbiting resumes tomorrow at 7:30 PM in the Windy City.
Friday, April 16, 2010
PLAYOFF GAMEDAY! A breakdown of Preds\Hawks!
It's been two years since the Nashville Predators have played in a playoff contest. Honestly, I would have thought it was 10.
I consider myself a fan of the game of hockey above all else. While my passion for the Predators is surpassed by few, my devotion to the game itself sits at the forefront. I can watch a hockey game at any level, involving any participants, in any circumstance. It doesn't matter if I have no personal attachment to the teams involved, I can usually pick one to cheer on. With all of that said, it's a hollow enjoyment when the playoffs roll around and the Predators aren't involved. With a week to wait for tonight's game after the conclusion of the regular season, a child-at-Christmas anticipation building, I've had a lot of time to reflect upon what the Preds will need to do to win, and also the things that if they are to do, they will most certainly LOSE the series. I've also gained a healthy(or is it unhealthy) dislike for Chicago Blackhawks fans and media. For a team not far removed from the basement of the Western Conference, they are carrying themselves with a new-money swagger and cockiness that for some reason really gets under my skin. I've seen Nashville characterized by more Chicago-based pundits and fans than I can even count as a feeble, trap-oriented team that fluked their way through the regular season, only to serve as cannon fodder for the high-flying Hawks offense. With each self-aggrandizing editorial, my urge to humble Chicago boiled over. Needless to say, I'm relieved that the day has finally arrived, and I can put out the fires raging in my brain.
Let's start by looking at what the Predators will need to focus on, in order to win this series. Chicago is characterized as an offensive juggernaut, not unlike the Washington Capitals. This is a deserved label, given that they lead the Western Conference in goals per game, goals scored, and goal differential(a staggering +62). However, the flip side of the GD coin is that unlike the Capitals, they're actually quite strong in all three zones, living near the top of the league in goals against for the entire season. This starts and ends with puck possession. The opponent can't score goals if they can't get and keep the puck. This philosophy has been in place for the Blackhawks for two seasons, and it's one that they operate with great success. It starts in the defensive zone, where they can showcase one of the most mobile, accurate-passing backends in the league. There isn't a bad passer in their defensive ranks, and they're trained to gain control of the puck, and waste no time transitioning through the neutral zone. They're not content to merely chip the puck out and hope to win possession between the blue lines. Their passing is very methodical and precise. There's always a target on the other end of their scope. This leads to a high number of quick and odd-man rushes. They can switch between defensive and offensive mode in a matter of seconds. Many times, a scoring chance in their defensive end results in a goal down at the other end. That speed of transition is deadly, and it's the foundation of their attack.
If Nashville is to succeed and win the series, they must take every measure to neutralize that attack. An active stick on the forecheck, and hard puck-pressure to disrupt those outlet passes and neutral zone transport is crucial to offsetting the speed and precision of their attack. They're not as big as teams the Predators have struggled with in the playoffs in the past; physical play becomes a necessary element to disrupt their offensive flow. The proverbial "head on a swivel" approach is key as well, given the speed with which the Hawks can reverse the ice. In addition, since the defense is so focused on getting the puck up ice and back into attack mode as quickly as possible, disruption of that transition can lead to turnovers, and thus goals. They have a young, unproven goalie in Antti Niemi. While Niemi has played well since taking over for the beleaguered and much-maligned albatross Cristobal Huet, a large part of that is due to the defense of the Hawks limiting the amount and quality of offensive chances he's had to face. The Predators cannot expect to set up shop in the Blackhawks' end, hoping to cycle until the perfect opportunity arises. Any goals Nashville scores will be of the dirty variety, and the result of shooting whenever possible and going hard to the net. In the defensive end, the Preds will need to focus on emulating the 'Hawks' approach: get the puck out as quickly and efficiently as possible. Nashville can at times be guilty of making too many passes in the defensive zone, much as they are inclined in the offensive zone. Chicago's forwards will be all over that type of play, and with their skill, it won't be long before pucks start finding their way behind Rinne. Speaking of Rinne, the defense needs to allow him to see as much as possible. The Blackhawks use their bigger forwards, particularly Dustin Byugflien(who is filling in at D for the moment, but still playing this role) and Andrew Ladd to screen the goaltender and bang in garbage. Nashville must be cognizant of those guys, and careful not to become part of the screen or even a deflective object in doing their job of clearing the crease. Another potential danger is being too set on blocking shots. There is a lot of patience in Chicago's forward corps, and they will exploit a forward or defenseman who goes down to block a shot, taking himself completely out of the play. Again...if Rinne sees it, he will most often stop it. Focus on giving him that advantage.
As much as there are many things that the Preds must focus on if they are to win, there are an equal amount of habits they CANNOT fall into. As described above, the Blackhawks are a tenacious puck-possession team. They create a lot of turnovers, and the longer you take to make a decision or a play, the higher the probability that they're going to take the puck from you becomes. The Predators must NOT fall into the trap of making too many passes, at either end of the ice. In the offensive zone, the Chicago D is too good at stripping the puck and blowing it back up ice. The shots need to be quick and plentiful. Giving the defense too much time to establish themselves and their positioning will curtail any offensive momentum we can build up. They play a similar style in the offensive zone. You never possess the puck for long, when they're attacking. The puck needs to be up and out with little hesitation. The Predators sometimes have the tendency to forgo a clear outlet in favor of cycling the puck back behind the net, hoping for a "better" transition. Every second the puck stays in the defensive zone is a ticking time bomb.
Part of what has made the Predators a success this year is that they've managed to attain a level of discipline unseen in any Preds teams of the past. A complete inability to stay out of the box was a major factor in their prior defeats. This diligence has to remain throughout the playoffs if Nashville is to succeed. The combination of Chicago's firepower on the PP combined with Nashville's inconsistent PK is a recipe for defeat. If the Predators can ensure that these games are played predominantly 5 on 5, and capitalize on whatever PP chances they do get, this becomes a very winnable series.
I said to my wife, when our first-round draw was determined, that there was one thing that could determine the winnability of this series. If we could overcome that first hurdle, I had utmost confidence that we could and would win the series. We need to win one of the first two games in Chicago, preferably the first. The United Center is known as one of the loudest, rowdiest buildings in the league. The Predators need to do their best to neutralize that element of home ice advantage as quickly as possible. If they can come out hard, to the fast start that has eluded them in the final weeks of the regular season, they can seize momentum. On the other hand, if they allow the Blackhawks a shooting gallery in the early going, resulting in an early 2 or 3 goal lead...they will be hard-pressed to assert themselves, contending with both the crowd and an energized young Blackhawks team.
I've said since about the midpoint of this season that I believe the 2009-2010 are the best built team we've ever iced. There may not be as much skill as the 2005-2007 version. They may not be as physical or gritty as the 02-04 version, but they combine those elements in a way that none of those teams ever did. They may lack the sheer skill of Patrick Kane or Marian Hossa, but they can truly ice 4 lines that are responsible defensively, but also able to chip in a timely goal. With four lines contributing, and hopefully an elevation from some forwards who struggled a bit this season(as the old adage says, your best players have to be your best players), I think the Predators can take this series.
My prediction?
Preds in 6. Book it.
I consider myself a fan of the game of hockey above all else. While my passion for the Predators is surpassed by few, my devotion to the game itself sits at the forefront. I can watch a hockey game at any level, involving any participants, in any circumstance. It doesn't matter if I have no personal attachment to the teams involved, I can usually pick one to cheer on. With all of that said, it's a hollow enjoyment when the playoffs roll around and the Predators aren't involved. With a week to wait for tonight's game after the conclusion of the regular season, a child-at-Christmas anticipation building, I've had a lot of time to reflect upon what the Preds will need to do to win, and also the things that if they are to do, they will most certainly LOSE the series. I've also gained a healthy(or is it unhealthy) dislike for Chicago Blackhawks fans and media. For a team not far removed from the basement of the Western Conference, they are carrying themselves with a new-money swagger and cockiness that for some reason really gets under my skin. I've seen Nashville characterized by more Chicago-based pundits and fans than I can even count as a feeble, trap-oriented team that fluked their way through the regular season, only to serve as cannon fodder for the high-flying Hawks offense. With each self-aggrandizing editorial, my urge to humble Chicago boiled over. Needless to say, I'm relieved that the day has finally arrived, and I can put out the fires raging in my brain.
Let's start by looking at what the Predators will need to focus on, in order to win this series. Chicago is characterized as an offensive juggernaut, not unlike the Washington Capitals. This is a deserved label, given that they lead the Western Conference in goals per game, goals scored, and goal differential(a staggering +62). However, the flip side of the GD coin is that unlike the Capitals, they're actually quite strong in all three zones, living near the top of the league in goals against for the entire season. This starts and ends with puck possession. The opponent can't score goals if they can't get and keep the puck. This philosophy has been in place for the Blackhawks for two seasons, and it's one that they operate with great success. It starts in the defensive zone, where they can showcase one of the most mobile, accurate-passing backends in the league. There isn't a bad passer in their defensive ranks, and they're trained to gain control of the puck, and waste no time transitioning through the neutral zone. They're not content to merely chip the puck out and hope to win possession between the blue lines. Their passing is very methodical and precise. There's always a target on the other end of their scope. This leads to a high number of quick and odd-man rushes. They can switch between defensive and offensive mode in a matter of seconds. Many times, a scoring chance in their defensive end results in a goal down at the other end. That speed of transition is deadly, and it's the foundation of their attack.
If Nashville is to succeed and win the series, they must take every measure to neutralize that attack. An active stick on the forecheck, and hard puck-pressure to disrupt those outlet passes and neutral zone transport is crucial to offsetting the speed and precision of their attack. They're not as big as teams the Predators have struggled with in the playoffs in the past; physical play becomes a necessary element to disrupt their offensive flow. The proverbial "head on a swivel" approach is key as well, given the speed with which the Hawks can reverse the ice. In addition, since the defense is so focused on getting the puck up ice and back into attack mode as quickly as possible, disruption of that transition can lead to turnovers, and thus goals. They have a young, unproven goalie in Antti Niemi. While Niemi has played well since taking over for the beleaguered and much-maligned albatross Cristobal Huet, a large part of that is due to the defense of the Hawks limiting the amount and quality of offensive chances he's had to face. The Predators cannot expect to set up shop in the Blackhawks' end, hoping to cycle until the perfect opportunity arises. Any goals Nashville scores will be of the dirty variety, and the result of shooting whenever possible and going hard to the net. In the defensive end, the Preds will need to focus on emulating the 'Hawks' approach: get the puck out as quickly and efficiently as possible. Nashville can at times be guilty of making too many passes in the defensive zone, much as they are inclined in the offensive zone. Chicago's forwards will be all over that type of play, and with their skill, it won't be long before pucks start finding their way behind Rinne. Speaking of Rinne, the defense needs to allow him to see as much as possible. The Blackhawks use their bigger forwards, particularly Dustin Byugflien(who is filling in at D for the moment, but still playing this role) and Andrew Ladd to screen the goaltender and bang in garbage. Nashville must be cognizant of those guys, and careful not to become part of the screen or even a deflective object in doing their job of clearing the crease. Another potential danger is being too set on blocking shots. There is a lot of patience in Chicago's forward corps, and they will exploit a forward or defenseman who goes down to block a shot, taking himself completely out of the play. Again...if Rinne sees it, he will most often stop it. Focus on giving him that advantage.
As much as there are many things that the Preds must focus on if they are to win, there are an equal amount of habits they CANNOT fall into. As described above, the Blackhawks are a tenacious puck-possession team. They create a lot of turnovers, and the longer you take to make a decision or a play, the higher the probability that they're going to take the puck from you becomes. The Predators must NOT fall into the trap of making too many passes, at either end of the ice. In the offensive zone, the Chicago D is too good at stripping the puck and blowing it back up ice. The shots need to be quick and plentiful. Giving the defense too much time to establish themselves and their positioning will curtail any offensive momentum we can build up. They play a similar style in the offensive zone. You never possess the puck for long, when they're attacking. The puck needs to be up and out with little hesitation. The Predators sometimes have the tendency to forgo a clear outlet in favor of cycling the puck back behind the net, hoping for a "better" transition. Every second the puck stays in the defensive zone is a ticking time bomb.
Part of what has made the Predators a success this year is that they've managed to attain a level of discipline unseen in any Preds teams of the past. A complete inability to stay out of the box was a major factor in their prior defeats. This diligence has to remain throughout the playoffs if Nashville is to succeed. The combination of Chicago's firepower on the PP combined with Nashville's inconsistent PK is a recipe for defeat. If the Predators can ensure that these games are played predominantly 5 on 5, and capitalize on whatever PP chances they do get, this becomes a very winnable series.
I said to my wife, when our first-round draw was determined, that there was one thing that could determine the winnability of this series. If we could overcome that first hurdle, I had utmost confidence that we could and would win the series. We need to win one of the first two games in Chicago, preferably the first. The United Center is known as one of the loudest, rowdiest buildings in the league. The Predators need to do their best to neutralize that element of home ice advantage as quickly as possible. If they can come out hard, to the fast start that has eluded them in the final weeks of the regular season, they can seize momentum. On the other hand, if they allow the Blackhawks a shooting gallery in the early going, resulting in an early 2 or 3 goal lead...they will be hard-pressed to assert themselves, contending with both the crowd and an energized young Blackhawks team.
I've said since about the midpoint of this season that I believe the 2009-2010 are the best built team we've ever iced. There may not be as much skill as the 2005-2007 version. They may not be as physical or gritty as the 02-04 version, but they combine those elements in a way that none of those teams ever did. They may lack the sheer skill of Patrick Kane or Marian Hossa, but they can truly ice 4 lines that are responsible defensively, but also able to chip in a timely goal. With four lines contributing, and hopefully an elevation from some forwards who struggled a bit this season(as the old adage says, your best players have to be your best players), I think the Predators can take this series.
My prediction?
Preds in 6. Book it.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Playoff Prognostications and other assorted fun!
Greetings, ladies and germs!
Tonight begins the exciting annual mecca undertaken by 16 teams, all with a singular focus. This myopic quest will engender joy, tears, blood, triumph, and despair--sometimes all in the same sixty minute span. This is a time when the third-line, blue collar plugger can emerge as the hero. A time when stars become superstars, and when moving on is achieved by those that can elevate their play to the very zenith of ability. Now is the time when the pretenders are culled from the contenders, until only one can grasp the 34.5 pound, 107 year old Holy Grail.
This is all of course just an eloquent way of saying that it's PLAYOFF TIME!
Since, like anyone, I want to flaunt my vast hockey experience and prognostication skills, I've decided to dedicate today's blog to MY picks, and why I'm making them. Being that we still have a few days until our own eagerly-anticipated series gets underway, I thought today might be a good time. As always, I encourage disagreement, so if I say something that ruffles your feathers, feel free to drop me a line via the comment section.
We'll start with the Eastern Conference:
(1) Washington vs (8) Montreal
My Prediction: Washington in 5
There's already a bit of a buzz about this series, on the heels of Montreal forward Tomas Plekanec's statement regarding the Capitals' goaltending, or lack thereof. Providing the offensively explosive Capitals with bulletin-board material may not have been a wise choice on the part of Plekanec. While it is true that Jaroslav Halak has been stellar for the Habs, and I do give them the edge in net, I'm not sure that it will be enough to overcome the offensive firepower of the Caps. The lack of mobility on the Montreal blueline might also mean problems when trying to contain the speed of Washington's forwards. Halak may steal a game in the boisterous Bell Centre, but look for a short series here.
(2)NJ vs (7) Philadelphia
My prediction: NJ in 6
There is no more important position in all of sports than a hockey goaltender. A good one can make an average team look unbeatable. A bad one can be the difference in heavy favorite or terrible disappointment. With that said, the matchup on paper does not look like a good one for "Nashville East." Brian Boucher hasn't been a playoff starter since the 99-00 series, whereas his counterpart boasts 3 Stanley Cups and 2 Olympic gold medals. The fact that flashy acquisition Ilya Kovalchuk finally started to look comfortable with the Devils down the stretch just spells even more trouble for Philly. The Flyers do have some dangerous weapons, and their punishing physical game should cause some problems for the smaller Devils, but in the end I think New Jersey takes this one. On the physical note, the Flyers need to remember the boundaries between finishing checks and playing stupid--not always the strong suit of rough customers Dan Carcillo and Scott Hartnell.
(3)Buffalo vs (6) Boston
My prediction: Boston in 7
To be honest, this is the hardest series for me to predict. I think the Sabres are somewhat overrated\inflated by their likely Vezina-winning goaltender Ryan Miller, but I also look at the Bruins and see no one area that particularly impresses me. I almost have to pick this series this way just so that I have an upset in the East, as well as a lengthy series. Statistically, there should be one...so why not here? :) On a more analytical note, both of these teams struggle to score goals. My not-so-bold prediction: rookie sensation Tuukka Rask falters early, and Tim Thomas earns some redemption to carry the Bruins to the win.
(4) Pittsburgh vs (5) Ottawa
My prediction: Pittsburgh in 6
This was the other series that I considered for the upset, but in the end, I'll go with the Penguins--at least for this round. The Senators, as I mentioned in a previous post, are my "adopted" Eastern Conference team this year, and I find it hard not to enjoy their combination of high-flying skill and brutal physicality. Like the Flyers, the Sens will need to find the line between physical and illegal. If the Penguins are given free rein on the power play, my 6 game prediction will never come to be. Ottawa may actually be able to stifle Crosby and Malkin, they have one of the best shutdown tandems in the league with which to work in Chris Phillips\Anton Volchenkov. However, the difference will be made by secondary scoring, as the Penguins get contributions from proven playoff performers like Jordan Staal once again. The Sens' rookie goaltender Brian Elliott has been a pleasant surprise for Ottawa, but the pressure will be on to match the performance of Cup-winner Marc-Andre Fleury.
Western Conference:
(1) San Jose vs (2) Colorado
My prediction: San Jose in 4
The Sharks are my eventual cup-winner, so don't expect their annual upset, at least not here. The Avalanche stumbled into the playoffs, barely edging out the Calgary Flames for the eighth spot. First-year coach Joe Sacco has done an admirable job with a young group that was never expected to come as far as they have, but I think we saw some of that youth running out of gas down the stretch. Craig Anderson has done a good job of keeping the ship afloat, and the Avs received some good news in the imminent return of Matt Duchene, but I'm not sure it's enough. The Sharks look as deadly as ever, and there's too much on the line for them to fold early this year.
(2) Chicago vs (7) Nashville
See my post tomorrow, this one gets its own entry :)
(3) Vancouver vs (6) LA
My prediction: Vancouver in 6
I grant that the Canucks have a few questions to answer, going into this postseason. Roberto Luongo has looked decidedly human, if not downright mediocre in the second half of the season. Meanwhile, Jonathan Quick has been part of an exciting young nucleus for the Kings. Like the Avalanche, the Kings have ridden that youth to a level that no one believed possible, returning to the playoffs for the first time in several years. Like last year's St Louis Blues, I think they're in for a rude awakening when they meet the Canucks in the first round. I think they'll put up a better fight than the heavily overmatched Blues did, but the end result will be the same. Henrik Sedin could be the Hart trophy winner this season, and the shallow Kings defense won't be able to contain him.
(4) Phoenix vs (5) Detroit
My prediction: Detroit in 5
The Coyotes have been a great story, one that Preds fans can empathize with. We know how it feels to have the threat of relocation hanging above our heads. We're accustomed to low expectations, and the shock that comes when those expectations are exceeded. For all of their hard work and surprising success, their reward is a Detroit Red Wings team that lost 2 games in regulation in their last 23. The Wings got healthy, and suddenly everyone remembered why they had been to two straight finals and won 8 straight division titles. Phoenix has a lot to build on, and a lot to be excited about, but this will be a short series. Bryzgalov has enjoyed a breakout year that should see some Vezina nominations, but he won't be enough to withstand the relentless offensive blitz of the Wings. On the other side of the puck, Detroit's ability to possess and transition the puck is unsurpassed by any other team in the league. The young, inexperienced Coyotes forwards will have a difficult time generating meaningful shots, all the while praying that a lose puck doesn't trickle the wrong way. The Red Wings can take a bad bounce and deposit in the back of your net before you can say "octopus." As much as I hate to say it, the Wings will make short work of Phoenix.
That wraps up my first-round predictions! As I mentioned, feel free to tell me how wrong I likely am...that's why I write the blog :). Tune in tomorrow for my breakdown of the Blackhawks\Preds series that we're all waiting far too long for.
See ya in the funny papers--POMR.
Tonight begins the exciting annual mecca undertaken by 16 teams, all with a singular focus. This myopic quest will engender joy, tears, blood, triumph, and despair--sometimes all in the same sixty minute span. This is a time when the third-line, blue collar plugger can emerge as the hero. A time when stars become superstars, and when moving on is achieved by those that can elevate their play to the very zenith of ability. Now is the time when the pretenders are culled from the contenders, until only one can grasp the 34.5 pound, 107 year old Holy Grail.
This is all of course just an eloquent way of saying that it's PLAYOFF TIME!
Since, like anyone, I want to flaunt my vast hockey experience and prognostication skills, I've decided to dedicate today's blog to MY picks, and why I'm making them. Being that we still have a few days until our own eagerly-anticipated series gets underway, I thought today might be a good time. As always, I encourage disagreement, so if I say something that ruffles your feathers, feel free to drop me a line via the comment section.
We'll start with the Eastern Conference:
(1) Washington vs (8) Montreal
My Prediction: Washington in 5
There's already a bit of a buzz about this series, on the heels of Montreal forward Tomas Plekanec's statement regarding the Capitals' goaltending, or lack thereof. Providing the offensively explosive Capitals with bulletin-board material may not have been a wise choice on the part of Plekanec. While it is true that Jaroslav Halak has been stellar for the Habs, and I do give them the edge in net, I'm not sure that it will be enough to overcome the offensive firepower of the Caps. The lack of mobility on the Montreal blueline might also mean problems when trying to contain the speed of Washington's forwards. Halak may steal a game in the boisterous Bell Centre, but look for a short series here.
(2)NJ vs (7) Philadelphia
My prediction: NJ in 6
There is no more important position in all of sports than a hockey goaltender. A good one can make an average team look unbeatable. A bad one can be the difference in heavy favorite or terrible disappointment. With that said, the matchup on paper does not look like a good one for "Nashville East." Brian Boucher hasn't been a playoff starter since the 99-00 series, whereas his counterpart boasts 3 Stanley Cups and 2 Olympic gold medals. The fact that flashy acquisition Ilya Kovalchuk finally started to look comfortable with the Devils down the stretch just spells even more trouble for Philly. The Flyers do have some dangerous weapons, and their punishing physical game should cause some problems for the smaller Devils, but in the end I think New Jersey takes this one. On the physical note, the Flyers need to remember the boundaries between finishing checks and playing stupid--not always the strong suit of rough customers Dan Carcillo and Scott Hartnell.
(3)Buffalo vs (6) Boston
My prediction: Boston in 7
To be honest, this is the hardest series for me to predict. I think the Sabres are somewhat overrated\inflated by their likely Vezina-winning goaltender Ryan Miller, but I also look at the Bruins and see no one area that particularly impresses me. I almost have to pick this series this way just so that I have an upset in the East, as well as a lengthy series. Statistically, there should be one...so why not here? :) On a more analytical note, both of these teams struggle to score goals. My not-so-bold prediction: rookie sensation Tuukka Rask falters early, and Tim Thomas earns some redemption to carry the Bruins to the win.
(4) Pittsburgh vs (5) Ottawa
My prediction: Pittsburgh in 6
This was the other series that I considered for the upset, but in the end, I'll go with the Penguins--at least for this round. The Senators, as I mentioned in a previous post, are my "adopted" Eastern Conference team this year, and I find it hard not to enjoy their combination of high-flying skill and brutal physicality. Like the Flyers, the Sens will need to find the line between physical and illegal. If the Penguins are given free rein on the power play, my 6 game prediction will never come to be. Ottawa may actually be able to stifle Crosby and Malkin, they have one of the best shutdown tandems in the league with which to work in Chris Phillips\Anton Volchenkov. However, the difference will be made by secondary scoring, as the Penguins get contributions from proven playoff performers like Jordan Staal once again. The Sens' rookie goaltender Brian Elliott has been a pleasant surprise for Ottawa, but the pressure will be on to match the performance of Cup-winner Marc-Andre Fleury.
Western Conference:
(1) San Jose vs (2) Colorado
My prediction: San Jose in 4
The Sharks are my eventual cup-winner, so don't expect their annual upset, at least not here. The Avalanche stumbled into the playoffs, barely edging out the Calgary Flames for the eighth spot. First-year coach Joe Sacco has done an admirable job with a young group that was never expected to come as far as they have, but I think we saw some of that youth running out of gas down the stretch. Craig Anderson has done a good job of keeping the ship afloat, and the Avs received some good news in the imminent return of Matt Duchene, but I'm not sure it's enough. The Sharks look as deadly as ever, and there's too much on the line for them to fold early this year.
(2) Chicago vs (7) Nashville
See my post tomorrow, this one gets its own entry :)
(3) Vancouver vs (6) LA
My prediction: Vancouver in 6
I grant that the Canucks have a few questions to answer, going into this postseason. Roberto Luongo has looked decidedly human, if not downright mediocre in the second half of the season. Meanwhile, Jonathan Quick has been part of an exciting young nucleus for the Kings. Like the Avalanche, the Kings have ridden that youth to a level that no one believed possible, returning to the playoffs for the first time in several years. Like last year's St Louis Blues, I think they're in for a rude awakening when they meet the Canucks in the first round. I think they'll put up a better fight than the heavily overmatched Blues did, but the end result will be the same. Henrik Sedin could be the Hart trophy winner this season, and the shallow Kings defense won't be able to contain him.
(4) Phoenix vs (5) Detroit
My prediction: Detroit in 5
The Coyotes have been a great story, one that Preds fans can empathize with. We know how it feels to have the threat of relocation hanging above our heads. We're accustomed to low expectations, and the shock that comes when those expectations are exceeded. For all of their hard work and surprising success, their reward is a Detroit Red Wings team that lost 2 games in regulation in their last 23. The Wings got healthy, and suddenly everyone remembered why they had been to two straight finals and won 8 straight division titles. Phoenix has a lot to build on, and a lot to be excited about, but this will be a short series. Bryzgalov has enjoyed a breakout year that should see some Vezina nominations, but he won't be enough to withstand the relentless offensive blitz of the Wings. On the other side of the puck, Detroit's ability to possess and transition the puck is unsurpassed by any other team in the league. The young, inexperienced Coyotes forwards will have a difficult time generating meaningful shots, all the while praying that a lose puck doesn't trickle the wrong way. The Red Wings can take a bad bounce and deposit in the back of your net before you can say "octopus." As much as I hate to say it, the Wings will make short work of Phoenix.
That wraps up my first-round predictions! As I mentioned, feel free to tell me how wrong I likely am...that's why I write the blog :). Tune in tomorrow for my breakdown of the Blackhawks\Preds series that we're all waiting far too long for.
See ya in the funny papers--POMR.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Preds\Yotes Game Day Preview!
Greetings, Pred-ucated ones!
Tonight, the Nashville Predators head west into the desert to face the howlin' desert dogs in what could be a preview of a first-round playoff matchup. The Coyotes come into the tilt in 4th place, while the Preds currently sit in fifth. This game has major standings implications, as it represents Nashville's last chance to make a run at home-ice advantage in the first round. The Preds would need to defeat the Coyotes by three or more goals, win their season finale against St Louis on Saturday, while the Coyotes would need to lose their last two in such a fashion that the Preds would maintain a higher GF total. Confused yet? Well, don't be...there's a pretty unlikely course of events that would have to transpire for that particular scenario to unfold, but that's why the games are played.
The Preds and Coyotes have met up 3 times this season. The Coyotes overcame a third period deficit to take the first game of the season series back on January 21 on the strength of a Scottie Upshall hat trick. The second game saw the Predators set a franchise record(broken shortly thereafter vs Detroit) for the longest shootout, a ten-round thriller that the Coyotes emerge victorious after a scoreless goaltenders' duel. The third and most recent match also went to a shootout, this time the Predators game out with the win, with David Legwand netting the game-winner in the SO.
KEYS TO THE GAME
*Get it done in regulation
The Coyotes lead the league in success in the extra frame, with a record of 18-6. The Predators managed to defy the odds with their last shootout win the last time out--best not to tempt fate.
*SHOOT THE PUCK!!
The Coyotes do a good job of boxing out their opponents in the offensive zone, and will attempt to keep chances to the perimeter. To beat that system, it's important to take the shot, rather than looking for the perfect setup, as the Predators are often guilty of doing. Traffic in front of the net becomes paramount here as well, as Bryzgalov will likely stop it if he sees it. Also, watch for the pokecheck from Bryz, something he's trademarked.
*Watch for the activated D in the high slot
Phoenix is not bashful about sending in their defensemen to set up for a shot from the top of the circles. Yandle and Jovonovski are particularly dangerous from this area. Our centers will need to make sure that the center of the ice is covered in the defensive zone to mitigate those chances.
WHO IS HOT?
Forward Lee Stempniak has 13 goals in 15 games since coming to the 'Yotes at the trade deadline.
WHO IS NOT?
Shane Doan is on pace to finish with under 20 goals for the first time since the 98-99 season, and hasn't potted one since January 31
THE DETAILS:
Nashville Predators(46-28-6, 98 pts, 5th place) at Phoenix Coyotes(48-25-6, 102 pts, 4th place)
April 7, 2010 9 pm CST, Jobing.com Arena
TV- Fox Sports TN, NHL Network, Radio- 104.5 the Zone
LEADERS:
Goals: Nashville- Hornqvist(30), Phoenix- Vrbata\Stempniak(24)
Assists: Nashville- Sullivan(34), Phoenix- Wolski(39)
Points: Nashville- Hornqvist(51), Phoenix- Wolski(61)
PIMS: Nashville- Belak(58), Phoenix- Bissonette(102)
Wins: Nashville- Rinne(31), Phoenix- Bryzgalov(41)
INJURIES:
Phoenix- Kurt Sauer(D) and Scottie Upshall(F) are out. Robert Lang is questionable
Nashville- Denis Grebeshkov(D) is out. Jason Arnott(F) is probable
Lines(Preducated guess at this point!) if anyone has Phoenix's lines or a good guess at it, drop me a line.
Erat Arnott Hornqvist
Sullivan Goc Dumont
Wilson Legwand Ward
Smithson Boyd Tootoo
Suter Weber
Klein Bouillon
Hamhuis Franson
Rinne
Ellis
Tennessean Preview
AZ Central Preview
Tonight, the Nashville Predators head west into the desert to face the howlin' desert dogs in what could be a preview of a first-round playoff matchup. The Coyotes come into the tilt in 4th place, while the Preds currently sit in fifth. This game has major standings implications, as it represents Nashville's last chance to make a run at home-ice advantage in the first round. The Preds would need to defeat the Coyotes by three or more goals, win their season finale against St Louis on Saturday, while the Coyotes would need to lose their last two in such a fashion that the Preds would maintain a higher GF total. Confused yet? Well, don't be...there's a pretty unlikely course of events that would have to transpire for that particular scenario to unfold, but that's why the games are played.
The Preds and Coyotes have met up 3 times this season. The Coyotes overcame a third period deficit to take the first game of the season series back on January 21 on the strength of a Scottie Upshall hat trick. The second game saw the Predators set a franchise record(broken shortly thereafter vs Detroit) for the longest shootout, a ten-round thriller that the Coyotes emerge victorious after a scoreless goaltenders' duel. The third and most recent match also went to a shootout, this time the Predators game out with the win, with David Legwand netting the game-winner in the SO.
KEYS TO THE GAME
*Get it done in regulation
The Coyotes lead the league in success in the extra frame, with a record of 18-6. The Predators managed to defy the odds with their last shootout win the last time out--best not to tempt fate.
*SHOOT THE PUCK!!
The Coyotes do a good job of boxing out their opponents in the offensive zone, and will attempt to keep chances to the perimeter. To beat that system, it's important to take the shot, rather than looking for the perfect setup, as the Predators are often guilty of doing. Traffic in front of the net becomes paramount here as well, as Bryzgalov will likely stop it if he sees it. Also, watch for the pokecheck from Bryz, something he's trademarked.
*Watch for the activated D in the high slot
Phoenix is not bashful about sending in their defensemen to set up for a shot from the top of the circles. Yandle and Jovonovski are particularly dangerous from this area. Our centers will need to make sure that the center of the ice is covered in the defensive zone to mitigate those chances.
WHO IS HOT?
Forward Lee Stempniak has 13 goals in 15 games since coming to the 'Yotes at the trade deadline.
WHO IS NOT?
Shane Doan is on pace to finish with under 20 goals for the first time since the 98-99 season, and hasn't potted one since January 31
THE DETAILS:
Nashville Predators(46-28-6, 98 pts, 5th place) at Phoenix Coyotes(48-25-6, 102 pts, 4th place)
April 7, 2010 9 pm CST, Jobing.com Arena
TV- Fox Sports TN, NHL Network, Radio- 104.5 the Zone
LEADERS:
Goals: Nashville- Hornqvist(30), Phoenix- Vrbata\Stempniak(24)
Assists: Nashville- Sullivan(34), Phoenix- Wolski(39)
Points: Nashville- Hornqvist(51), Phoenix- Wolski(61)
PIMS: Nashville- Belak(58), Phoenix- Bissonette(102)
Wins: Nashville- Rinne(31), Phoenix- Bryzgalov(41)
INJURIES:
Phoenix- Kurt Sauer(D) and Scottie Upshall(F) are out. Robert Lang is questionable
Nashville- Denis Grebeshkov(D) is out. Jason Arnott(F) is probable
Lines(Preducated guess at this point!) if anyone has Phoenix's lines or a good guess at it, drop me a line.
Erat Arnott Hornqvist
Sullivan Goc Dumont
Wilson Legwand Ward
Smithson Boyd Tootoo
Suter Weber
Klein Bouillon
Hamhuis Franson
Rinne
Ellis
Tennessean Preview
AZ Central Preview
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